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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.